International Journal of Aquaculture, 2026, Vol.16, No.2, 90-110 http://www.aquapublisher.com/index.php/ija 107 Figure 13 Comparative analysis of water supply and demand in the Middle Nzoia Catchment (2022-2052) (Source: Researcher (2025)) For instance, by the year 2052, the supply requirement was projected to reach approximately 250 × 106 m³, whereas the actual delivered supply lags behind at around 240 × 106 m³. This persistent supply deficit, averaging 4%, indicates chronic inefficiencies in distribution networks, water treatment capacities, and infrastructure operation. This observation aligns with findings by Odwori (2021), who identified similar shortfalls in regional water utilities due to aging infrastructure and limited operational capacity. 4.3.6.2 Water demand vs. unmet demand This comparison addresses two key metrics: water demand, and unmet demand, while reflecting the influence of various scenarios such as high population growth, extended dry period, extended wet season, and increased agricultural coverage (Figure 14). Figure 14 Comparative analysis of water supply and demand in the Middle Nzoia Catchment (2022-2052) (Researcher (2025)) The left panel of Figure 14 captures total water demand, which was projected to rise steadily from about 52 × 106 m³ in 2022 to nearly 260 × 106 m³ by the year 2052. This increase reflects growing population pressure, industrial expansion, and agricultural intensification. In contrast, the unmet demand—shown in the lower right panel represents the volume of water required but not supplied. It starts at approximately 20 × 106 m³ in 2022 and was projected to climb to about 180 × 106 m³ by the year 2052, marking a 28% increase over the study period.
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