International Journal of Aquaculture, 2026, Vol.16, No.2, 90-110 http://www.aquapublisher.com/index.php/ija 102 Figure 6 Projected total water demand in the Middle Nzoia Catchment (Source: Researcher (2025)) 4.3.3 General water demand projections (2022-2052) Seasonal and long-term inflow trends under the Reference Scenario between 2022 and 2052 (Figure 7). Figure 7 Monthly average inflows under the reference scenario (2022-2052) (Source: Researcher (2025)) Scenario-based analyses reveal varied demand patterns influenced by climate, population, and land use changes. The high population growth scenario shows the greatest increase, with peak demand reaching about 260 × 106 m³ to 50% rise over the base average (178 × 106 m³) in contrast, the extended wet season scenario shows reduced demand, peaking at around 152 × 106 m³ approximately 14% below the base average due to increased rainfall availability, reduced irrigation needs and higher soil moisture storage.
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